Organized Crime & Energy Supply Scenarios to 2020

Abstract

Energy security is now front page news. Increasing concerns about global warming and other environmental threats have brought increased public attention to energy issues in general, while occasional energy shortages in recent winters in certain countries have provided a reminder of just how reliant on identified energy supplies we are. Around the world and more specifically in the EU, concerns have been raised regarding future energy availability, particularly levels of dependence on hydrocarbon imports (oil and gas). At the same time, strategic intelligence analysis indicates that organised crime groups are involved in energy supply to the EU and within EU Member States (MS). In the Strategy for Europol 2010-2014, the Organisation has committed itself to “scan the environment for new developments in internal security threats”. With this in mind, Europol has carried out a scenario management exercise to examine the possible future involvement of organised crime in energy supply. Scenarios are descriptions of possible worlds which facilitate reflection on the future. Different scenarios highlight risks and opportunities which enable organisations, including law enforcement agencies, to prepare appropriate responses in the event of identified phenomena becoming a reality. Scenario building is an approach which is increasingly being used by the public and private sector alike. The scenarios presented in this document will be used to inform strategic decision–making at Europol, supporting the overall approach of forward planning through foresight. It is also anticipated that this document will be of use to the competent authorities in EU Member States. This report is the result of a joint exercise, which has drawn on expertise from Europol, national law enforcement, the private sector, academia and the European Commission. It should be noted that this document is not a threat assessment and is not intended to provide specific recommendations for operational responses.