China: a stabilizing or deflationary influence in East Asia? The problem of conflicted virtue

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dc.contributor Universität <Tübingen> / Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Seminar de_DE
dc.contributor.author Schnabl, Gunther de_DE
dc.date.accessioned 2005-08-09 de_DE
dc.date.accessioned 2014-03-18T10:02:11Z
dc.date.available 2005-08-09 de_DE
dc.date.available 2014-03-18T10:02:11Z
dc.date.issued 2003 de_DE
dc.identifier.other 119478846 de_DE
dc.identifier.uri http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:21-opus-18661 de_DE
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10900/47370
dc.description.abstract Rapidly growing Chinese exports are middle-tech - and increasingly high-tech - manufactured goods. China runs a huge and growing bilateral trade surplus with the United States, and the position of Japan has changed radically from being a net exporter to China in the 1980s and most of 1990s to being a net importer today. China's smaller East Asian industrial competitors such as Taiwan, Korea, and Singapore face fairly difficult readjustment problems. However, China is a huge importer of primary products and industrial raw materials and runs large import surpluses with the ASEAN group. On the macroeconomic side, China has been a stabilizing influence. While maintaining steady high growth and exchange rate stability at 8.3 yuan per dollar since 1994, it has largely avoided, and thus dampened, the business cycles of its East Asian trading partners. But there are potential clouds on this horizon. Since 1995, China has run with moderate multilateral trade surpluses coupled with large inflows of foreign direct investment. The resulting balance of payments surpluses have led to a rapid buildup of liquid dollar claims on foreigners - both in official exchange reserves and, less obviously, in stocks held privately or in China's nonstate sectors. This increasing private dollar overhang leads to what we call the syndrome of "conflicted virtue". If there is no threat that the renminbi will appreciate, private portfolio equilibrium for accumulating and holding both dollar and renminbi assets can be sustained. However, foreigners, particularly Japanese, are upset with China's "excessive" mercantile competitiveness. They are urging China's government to appreciate the renminbi - and show greater future exchange rate flexibility, which could lead to repetitive appreciations. The result would be severe deflation throughout China's economy and a zero-interest liquidity trap - as in Japan, when forced into repeated appreciations of the yen in the 1980s into the mid 1990s. en
dc.language.iso en de_DE
dc.publisher Universität Tübingen de_DE
dc.rights ubt-podno de_DE
dc.rights.uri http://tobias-lib.uni-tuebingen.de/doku/lic_ohne_pod.php?la=de de_DE
dc.rights.uri http://tobias-lib.uni-tuebingen.de/doku/lic_ohne_pod.php?la=en en
dc.subject.classification China , Wirtschaft de_DE
dc.subject.ddc 330 de_DE
dc.title China: a stabilizing or deflationary influence in East Asia? The problem of conflicted virtue en
dc.type ResearchPaper de_DE
utue.publikation.fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften de_DE
utue.publikation.fakultaet 6 Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät de_DE
dcterms.DCMIType Text de_DE
utue.publikation.typ workingPaper de_DE
utue.opus.id 1866 de_DE
utue.opus.portal wiwidisk de_DE
utue.opus.portalzaehlung 263.00000 de_DE
utue.publikation.source Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät ; 263 de_DE
utue.publikation.reihenname Tübinger Diskussionsbeitrag de_DE
utue.publikation.zsausgabe 263
utue.publikation.erstkatid 2136475-8

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