The changing role of the yen/dollar exchange rate for japanese monetary policy

Abstract

This paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy reaction function. In contrast to prior estimations of reaction functions based on the Taylor-rule, we allow for regime shifts by estimating rolling coefficients from January 1974 to March 1999. The results show a temporary impact of the exchange rate on monetary policy around 1978/79 and a persistently increasing impact of the yen/dollar exchange rate after 1986. The ris ing importance of the yen/dollar exchange rate for Japanese monetary policy is in line with increasing efforts to stabilize the yen/dollar exchange rate by foreign exchange intervention after March 1999, when the nominal interest rate reached the zero boundary.