Big News: Climate Change and the Business Cycle

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Show simple item record Dietrich, Alexander M. Müller, Gernot J. Schoenle, Raphael S. 2023-03-27T16:01:08Z 2023-03-27T16:01:08Z 2023-03-21
dc.identifier.uri de_DE
dc.description.abstract News drive expectations about the economy’s future fundamentals. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly but the effect will take some time to materialize in full. Climate-change expectations thus offer a unique opportunity to study the impact of news on the business cycle. We measure these expectations in a representative survey of US consumers. Respondents expect not much of an impact on GDP growth, but perceive a high probability of costly, rare disasters—suggesting they are salient of climate change. Furthermore, expectations vary systematically with socioeconomic characteristics, media consumption, various information treatments and over time. We calibrate a New Keynesian model with rare disasters to key results of the survey and find that shifts in climate change expectations operate like demand shocks and cause sizeable business cycle fluctuations. en
dc.language.iso en de_DE
dc.publisher Universität Tübingen de_DE
dc.subject.classification Economics de_DE
dc.subject.ddc 330 de_DE
dc.subject.other Climate change en
dc.subject.other Disasters en
dc.subject.other Expectations en
dc.subject.other Survey en
dc.subject.other Monetary policy en
dc.subject.other Business Cycle en
dc.subject.other Natural rate of interest en
dc.title Big News: Climate Change and the Business Cycle en
dc.type Article de_DE
utue.publikation.fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften de_DE
utue.publikation.fakultaet 6 Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät de_DE
utue.opus.portal utwpbusinesseco de_DE
utue.publikation.noppn yes de_DE


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