Abstract:
Recent studies diverge in their assessments of the extent to which Japanese public opinion may have an influence in foreign policy-making. Societal participation has traditionally not played a significant role in policy formation. This view has been strongly represented in academia until today. Over the 1990s a visible change and an emerging societal activism was taking place in Japan. Research has only recently begun to understand how, and to what extend, public opinion affects the policy-making process on salient domestic issues, but we know far less about the relationship to and effects of public opinion on Japan’s foreign policy-making.
The aim of this PhD thesis is to take a closer look at the possible impact of public opinion in Japanese foreign policy decision-making during the leadership of Prime Minister Koizumi (2001-2006). More precisely, to identify and test conditions, which facilitate the impact of public opinion in the foreign policy decision-making processes of Japan. The results shall contribute to explanations of governmental behavior during a strong prime ministerial leadership. Further evidence shall be given, how and when a strong leader chooses to react to public opinion.
Methods used in this study are cases study analysis and process-tracing. Reconstruction and interpretation as well as standardized, general questions will further guide the analysis of each case study. The case studies applied are the North Korean abduction issue, the Iraq War and the Yasukuni Shrine issue. Approaches of Foreign Policy Analysis and Public Opinion Research are applied as theoretical framework to guide and structure the analysis.
By considering the three events described above, the following questions arise: When did Prime Minister Koizumi take public opinion into consideration in foreign policy decision? Under what conditions was Koizumi most likely to follow public opinion in his foreign policy decision-making? When did the public’s impact vary?
On the background of these questions, this study tries to identify a reasonable model of causes guiding foreign policy decisions by considering public opinion as a determining variable. My argument is, that the combination and relative strength of opinion magnitudes, consensus or disagreement among elites, opinion coalition abilities, political incentives on the domestic front, Kūki/the climate of opinion and the decision stage can contribute to constituting public opinion as a determining variable in the foreign policy-making process during the Koizumi administration. Further, I argue, that the strength of each condition is mutually interdependent and therefore can help to explain variance in strengths. Lastly, I assume that public opinion, as in the case of domestic politics, always matters in foreign policy decision-making albeit the degree of impact may vary.